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THIS MONTH
Not a week has passed
since our last newsletter without housing affordability, the
sub-prime crisis or interest rates making the headlines.
With several consecutive rises in interest rates in recent
months many investors are reviewing their current loans and
structures.
If you are thinking of reviewing your loans it’s
important to keep several critical principles in mind before making
any changes.
1. Begin with the end in mind: What’s your end
game? 2. Interest rates: rate and see? 3. Loan structures: Get
it right the first time!
The good news is that direct
property investment over the last 10 years still provides the best
returns. A report released early May 2008 by peak industry body
Australian Direct Property Investment Association, shows over the 10
years to December 31, 2007, direct property provided strong returns,
highest distributions, lowest volatility and best risk-adjusted
returns.
The report compared property returns with that of
shares, listed and residential property, cash, fixed interest and
managed funds. How the property and share market will respond in the
future to the issues associated with the reduction of funds on the
market for lending is anybodies guess.
STOP PRESS - Review
your current strategy NOW There are very strong indications that
there will be restrictions in lenders' ability to access equity in
the next two years. Mortgage insurers and lenders have significantly
changed their policies in the last few weeks which could greatly
impact your future portfolio growth. Many investors access equity in
their portfolio through lo doc or no doc loans when there has been
adequate capital growth or through renovation etc. In the last week
this strategy has taken a direct hit with a general policy change
across the market that restricts cashout for capitalising interest
and future purchases. Hence many investors are responding by
accessing that equity now, as many indicators suggest this will not
be a viable option in the next few months. I've provided some
further information below on why now is a good time to tap into your
existing equity. If you are an investor who plans to utilise this
strategy, I urge you to contact me to review your options now.
As always, I hope you enjoy this newsletter and that you
make use of the ‘Members Only’ InvestKit, full of practical
spreadsheets and handy information. Given the current market
conditions there's a lot to ponder in our newsletter, so grab a
coffee sit back and relax for the next half
hour.
Jane
| InvestKit
As a Newsletter Member you also have access to the
InvestKit containing easy to use spreadsheets for researching
and locating the right property.
If you haven’t yet
looked inside the Invest Kit to see what’s on offer, don’t
delay because you could be missing out on something that will
make a difference to your investment strategy.
This
month we have added the following:- - A comical pictorial
on how the Credit Crunch came about (please be warned about
the language) - An article explaining cross
collaterisation - An article from Your Property Investment
Magazine exploring why Investors use Interest Only loans -
PMI Property Report March 2008
This link is not active for those who are not
members of the newsletter.
Click here to access the Invest
Kit
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| What's your end game?
At some point most investors draw up a financial plan - a
road map of where they want to be and how they plan to get
there. When was the last time you looked at your plan? And
more importantly, when was the last time you reviewed what
your end game is? Do you still want to retire at 45? Or are
you now more specific in your goals, say wanting a passive
annual income of $50,000 by the time you’re 50?
Unless
you keep your ‘big picture’ in mind it’s easy to fall victim
to the “hysteria” of today’s media headlines – prices are
rising, interest rates are rising etc – without thinking how
the purchase fits into your financial plans into the long
term. Many first time investors succumb to this “should we,
shouldn’t we” mindset, listening to family, friends or taxi
drivers, who say now is not the time to buy. Now is never the
right time for the naysayers, but now is always the right time
for seasoned and experienced investors who are able to make
the most of any market conditions to add to their financial
plan by building their proprerty portfolio.
History has
shown that those who try to pick the market often miss the
market. Experienced investors always keep their end game front
of mind. Before making a decision to buy or sell they consider
how the transaction will contribute to their long term goals.
They ensure they retain ‘flexibility’ to jump on an opportune
purchase. And finally they make sure they can afford the
purchase. Rarely do they get caught up in only considering the
short term or immediate outlook.
The current landscape
can be good for the savvy investor as others are scared away.
However don’t rule out further investments too quickly. Many
areas are experiencing strong rent growths and analysts are
predicting house prices have not yet reached their peaks. As
reported in BRW on 17 April, many seasoned investors are
taking advantage of current market conditions to access recent
growth of equity in their properties. If history repeats
itself we may see an exodus of funds from shares to bricks and
mortar.
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| Interest Rates – rate and
see?
Many lenders have added insult to injury recently by
increasing their rates above and beyond the official RBA rate
rises. So it’s not surprising many investors are reassessing
their loans. However if you do, make sure you understand why
you are doing so and how it supports you achieving your
financial goals. Most importantly limit your borrowings by
what you can afford – not what the bank will lend you.
The current environment is unusual when domestic and
international factors are taken into account. Some of the
commentary is not easy to understand. So how do these factors
impact and explain what is happening with local interest
rates?
Put simply – securitisation.
Securitisation Securitisation is the
process where lenders package their resources (eg a portfolio
of loans), convert them into securities and trade them to
capital investors. The securities traded have a range of risk
profiles and therefore a range of associated returns on
investment.
It is an important technique, particularly
for non-bank lenders as it allows them to raise funds, that
banks commonly source from customer deposits. Securitisation
has increased competition in the Australian mortgage market,
benefiting consumers by allowing many non-bank lenders to
offer cheaper products.
Securitisation does have a
downside. Due to the re-pricing of the risk profiles of
tradeable securities as a result of the US sub-prime crisis,
domestic interest rates have been rising. Surprisingly it is
the big banks who seem quickest to move their rates above the
RBA increase.
I’ve come across a presentation that
explains the US Sub-prime crisis very easily. However –
please be warned - despite the innocent and humorous
looking stick figures, it does contain some offensive
language. If you’d like to really understand what happened in
the US and how it has affected the Australian mortgage market
This link is only available to newsletter members.
Securitisation
explained
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Otherwise….
The level of securitisation in the US
is greater than it is in Australia. However the level of
transparency and eligibility criteria is stricter here
compared to the US. The weakness of these features in the US,
in part, explains the sub-prime market. Not surprisingly the
US Treasury Secretary announced last month the introduction of
greater regulation and prudential measures.
Funds were
lent to US customers who eventually defaulted on their loans.
Sub prime lending means essentially the people taking out the
mortgages had already had defaults previously and to compound
issues they started on affordable repayments based on
honeymoon discount rates of 1.5% which quickly rose up to 9%.
As part of normal banking these lenders, parceled up their
loan portfolio (including all the default loans) and sold them
to raise funds through securitisation. Australian lenders were
among those who purchased these tradeable securities. The risk
profiles of these securities were re-priced reflecting the
greater risk, or lower return on investment.
Before
long a domino effect was in play. With a shortage of money on
the market, it costs more for lenders to borrow funds to in
turn loan to clients.
Credit Crunch -
impacting everyone Many commentators have
claimed this will have even greater long term effect on the
domestic market. It may be too early to know if this is true
or not but one thing is for sure. Banks are reassessing the
profitability of lending money.
This has been
demonstrated most dramatically in recent weeks by Macquarie
Bank and First Permanent, to name but a few, exiting the
domestic mortgage market and other lenders reviewing the types
of products they will offer with some withdrawing from 100%
loans and significant changes to LVR
requirements.
Another fall out of the credit crunch
relates to mortgage brokers. You may have heard that some
banks are cutting their commissions to mortgage brokers.
Unfortunately this will not translate into a fall in interest
rates for clients. The rationale for the drop in commission is
one of sharing the pain around. The lenders are passing the
increase cost of funds on to their clients through increasing
rates however the opportunity to reduce costs through a
reduction of payments to mortgage brokers was an opportunity
to good to pass up. One bank has reduced broker commissions by
30%. I share this information to demonstrate that the banks
seem to have signalled a major change to their routine
business operations on all fronts. I doubt when the situation
improves and interest rates drop, that brokers will also share
the benefit in having their incomes restored. I believe this
change alone will see a great reduction in the number of
mortgage brokers in Australia. As you can imagine facing a 30%
pay cut combined with the changing lending polices making it
more difficult to find lending solutions may be too much for
some in the next few years.
Many experienced investors
routinely opt for lo doc or no doc loans when they approach
the end of their serviceability, allowing them to make further
investments. To really throw the cat amongst the pigeons -
Australia's largest providers of insurance which these types
of loans require - Genworth and PMI - announced recently
significant changes to their policies. This will have major
impacts on this routine investment strategy for
investors. |
| Developing a robust loan
structure
Over the past ten years home values throughout
Australia have increased, and in some instances more than
doubled. This increased equity provides homeowners with a
source of funds they can use. It is up to you on how you use
these funds, or if indeed you do. Importantly it is your
choice and you should not relinquish your ability to stay in
control of your own financial future.
Spending time
initially to develop an appropriate loan structure specific
for you can literally mean the difference between achieving
your long term financial goals or not. As many of my clients
will attest to, developing the right structure for each client
is one of Investors Choice strengths and something of a
passion for me personally. Many are now accessing this equity
with a realistic fear that they will not be able to in the
next year due to a reduction in funds available on the money
market. Many believe that you should borrow when you do not
need it. However be alert as many lenders are reducing their
risks in the current credit crunch by cross-collaterising
borrower's homes with their investment property.
With
this in mind I'd strongly encourage you to review a detailed
article I've written on cross collaterisation as a loan
structure and how it may effect your growing portfolio. Click
on the link to access more detailed information contained
within the ICM InvestKit.
This link is only available
to newsletter members.
Cross
Collateratisation
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| No time like the present -
tapping your equity
As mentioned previously many investors are currently using
the current lending policies to access equity they has built
up in their portfolio. The main reason this is occurring now
is that the lenders and the mortgage insurers have indicated
that this may not be possible in the near future. There are a
number of reasons why an investor may consider this
strategy:-
1. As a defensive strategy, allowing you to
hold in the medium term rather than selling. Some use a
strategy that uses equity to pay the difference between rent
and costs ie interest repayments. This advanced investment
stratgey has to be discussed with your accountant and has many
implications. However simply in could be an option where
future growth prospects are good for a particulat property and
transactions cost of buying and selling (stamp duty, agent's
commission etc) are high.
2. Offensive strategy. Some
are current cashing up so that they can leverage off one of
the 3 D's which force people to sell and subsequently allow
them to pirckup a bargain. The 3 D's, death divorce, debt.
Once again a strategy that some are not comfortable with and
should be discussed with your accountant.
3. Because
you can. The rapidly changing market may mean that you will
not have access to that equity for the next few years. So it
creates flexibility in inflexible
times. |
A final comment
The property market -
due to interest rate rises, market uncertainty and a volitile share
market - is in a very unusual position. This doesn’t mean to avoid
the property market and put your funds under the bed. But it does
mean you need to be savvier than usual. Many experienced investors
are finding that the strategies we have all routinely adopted are
not necessarily the best at the moment. Now more than ever it is
critical to ensure you have a robust loan structure and that you
have made plans for the next two years especially if you are
planning on buying or accessing equity. Please call Investors Choice
for an obligation free review of your portfolio.
On a
personal note, thank you to the many good wishes following the
arrival of my son Max in late November. There has been more good
news. Many of my clients will have spoken to Debbie in the office at
some stage. We hope you join us in congratulating Debbie on the
birth of little Hannah, arriving safe and sound in early April.
Till next time, I wish you prosperous investing and happy
house hunting.
Jane
PS: at Investors Choice we
believe in sharing our systems, information and resources. Our
website is continually updated to reflect any new information we
think you might find of benefit. Check out the website at
www.investorschoice.com.au
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Disclaimer: You
should always speak to a financial planner or accountant about your
particular circumstances, the hints mentioned here are for general
discussion only and do not relate to your particular
circumstances
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